Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Disarmament? Uncertain Days Ahead
Only one of the Accra III agreement laws passed -- which were the precondition for the disarmament.
Now the FPI (at least La Présidente) is making the disarmament the precondition for modification of article 35 of the constitution.
And the UN is hoping the ex-rebels have enough confidence in President Gbagbo to disarm without preconditions.
Who's dreaming?
Particularly as the Gbagbo regime and the government should have disbanded the militias long ago! Or do I remember one head of State said they did not exist (any more than there are mercenaries)?
But they are still there and their training camps at Yopougon are operating at full steam yet once again. And the Young Patriots (who obey orders and are the best controlled of the militias) are out in force.
A popular "revolt" against the rebels using the Patriots as an FPI army may be what is planned for the 15th and the days following.
It is hard to imagine the French and UN forces shooting FPI "troops" that come against them.
In test runs the French have already been blocked by the Patriots on several occasions (with the Police looking on). And the UN had more than 30 damaged vehicles, the cost of getting a point across.
The "rebels" may have less qualms than the French.
This may sound somewhat apocalyptic but I think we'll all be keeping our heads down.
And if you're planning going to Bassam or Assinie for a quiet weekend on 15th, maybe it will be best to make a detour via the airport-Adjouffou road or the back streets of Port Bouet to avoid the BIMA.
Only one of the Accra III agreement laws passed -- which were the precondition for the disarmament.
Now the FPI (at least La Présidente) is making the disarmament the precondition for modification of article 35 of the constitution.
And the UN is hoping the ex-rebels have enough confidence in President Gbagbo to disarm without preconditions.
Who's dreaming?
Particularly as the Gbagbo regime and the government should have disbanded the militias long ago! Or do I remember one head of State said they did not exist (any more than there are mercenaries)?
But they are still there and their training camps at Yopougon are operating at full steam yet once again. And the Young Patriots (who obey orders and are the best controlled of the militias) are out in force.
A popular "revolt" against the rebels using the Patriots as an FPI army may be what is planned for the 15th and the days following.
It is hard to imagine the French and UN forces shooting FPI "troops" that come against them.
In test runs the French have already been blocked by the Patriots on several occasions (with the Police looking on). And the UN had more than 30 damaged vehicles, the cost of getting a point across.
The "rebels" may have less qualms than the French.
This may sound somewhat apocalyptic but I think we'll all be keeping our heads down.
And if you're planning going to Bassam or Assinie for a quiet weekend on 15th, maybe it will be best to make a detour via the airport-Adjouffou road or the back streets of Port Bouet to avoid the BIMA.
