Friday, March 25, 2005
Chaos in Ivory Coast 2004
Le Monde newspaper still has on its site a slide show of photos of the events of November. (Photo commentary is in French.)
Click here: Chaos in Ivory Coast 2004
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If need be, you can install the Flash player by clicking here:
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Le Monde newspaper still has on its site a slide show of photos of the events of November. (Photo commentary is in French.)
Click here: Chaos in Ivory Coast 2004
N.B. You must have the Macromedia FLASH player installed on your computer for this link to work when you click on it.
If need be, you can install the Flash player by clicking here:
ShockwaveFlash Player
Wednesday, March 16, 2005
Abidjan Reported to be Second Most Dangerous City in the World
We all know about statistics and lying statistics, things being true and not true at the same time. I am not sure that the sort of facts and figures reported are borne out in real terms so far as we as expatriates are concerned. I say this mindful of the personal safety warnings just below this post.
I quote accounts of this Mercer report: "The safety survey evaluated 215 locations for crime levels and internal stability."
A newspaper article giving a précis of the report says: “The world’s least secure city is Baghdad (Iraq), with a score of 5 due to ongoing civil unrest and threats of attack in the city. Other low-ranking cities include Abidjan in the Ivory Coast, Bangui in Central African Republic, and Port Harcourt and Lagos in Nigeria , which score 24, 26.5, 32.5, and 32.5 respectively. These countries continue to experience political turmoil and low economic growth.”
"The top-ranking cities for personal safety and security are in politically stable countries with good international relations and sustainable economic growth," said the senior researcher at Mercer. "Most of the low-scoring cities are in countries with civil unrest, little law enforcement and high levels of crime."
This seems to be looking partly at economic and political stability together with safety. True, the second factor may raise blood pressure and cause diarrhoea problems, but it is not really a "safety" factor.
They say: “Scores for personal safety and security are based on relationships with other countries, internal stability, and crime, including terrorism. Law enforcement, censorship, and limitations on personal freedom are also taken into account.” Now that is sure spreading the net wide and no wonder African cities do not compare with American for that sort of “safety” – though with those criteria in mind, in the past America would not at all have been a “safe” place, with its relationship to the ex-URSS, Cuba, Colombia, Panama, etc.
But I realize that the figures and this sort of report are among other things useful for diplomats, ADB people and others to get "hardship post" pay.
It perhaps needs to be said that Embassy bulletins and advisories concerning security are in many cases a matter of covering their rear-end. They so often deal with potential threats to expatriates rather than real danger, just as in the States periodic warnings are given of a possible attack against bridges, trains, airports or whatever – for what they are worth. It’s just good politics in case things go wrong. ("We told you so.") When the Indonesian bombings took place, Australian tourists asked, Why weren’t we warned? (But they would probably have gone there on holidays all the same.)
And note that the data of this report was collected between September and November 2004. Now in Abidjan there were special incidents in November which would raise safety concerns. But note: no deaths of expatriats not even serious injuries (except military). The situation was little worse than student riots in Paris or WTO riots elsewhere in the West, and certainly nothing like the slaughter in Russia when trying to liberate a school.
Also, we have had no Twin Towers safety concerns here in Abidjan and Al Qaeda does not raise the same concerns here as Stateside. (Except for journalists with poor geography who confuse Azerbaijan and Abidjan.)
In that regard, today’s news makes gives residents of Ivory Coast grounds to be relieved they are not in the United States “The Department of Homeland Security, trying to focus antiterrorism spending better nationwide, has identified a dozen possible strikes it views as most plausible or devastating, including detonation of a nuclear device in a major city, release of sarin nerve agent in office buildings and a truck bombing of a sports arena.” New York Times, March 16, 2005
I think the Mercer study took into account medical facilities available also. But what expats have access to in Abidjan is as good as some of the best in New York and the world -- except that some people are afraid to be treated by African medical personnel.
As for quality of life, most expats live better in Abidjan (servants, travel, financial security, perks) than they would in the States or elsewhere. Too much of this factor is linked to non-consequential things like the cost of a packet of cornflakes in Abidjan compared with the price in a no-frills supermarket in America or elsewhere.
But the "quality of life" figures in this sort of report look no doubt at the overall poverty level of the population. If you are going to do that, you should rather compare Abidjan with the Bronx than with greater New York.
Even so, real city to city comparisons can be made. For example, compare firearm killings per day in Abidjan (excluding those by the police - but remember an unarmed African in New York like Amadou Diallo could receive 41 police bullets) with those per day in New York or Washington.
Just how many whites are killed by firearms in Abidjan in a year? How many in New York?
How many shootings take place in schools in Abidjan per year? In New York?
Even car-jackings, perhaps 7 per day in Abidjan? How many in New York or Washington? (The size of the city was not relevant to the report as they put Luxemburg at the top.)
In terms of potential danger, how many hand guns and automatic weapons are in people’s hands in Abidjan? And in New York?
How many robberies go "wrong" here? And in New York, with deaths?
Where are the areas in Abidjan where the police dare not go? And in New York?
Where are you afraid to park your car in Abidjan for fear of losing the wheels? And in New York?
Where were you afraid to walk or jog in Abidjan? In the daytime? At night? What about in New York or Washington? (And what about Jo’burg where people are said never to dare walk?)
It seems to be becoming a norm in America for dissatisfied workers or worshippers to walk into a work place or church and kill several people. We see none of that here in Abidjan.
Everything is relative, but to put Abidjan lower than Lagos on a safety chart is over the top. And as for non-mentioned factors such as kidnappings of expat children, there is no comparison between Abidjan and Mexico City. Maybe the report compilers need to do a rethink after watching “Man on Fire”.
It is still worth noting that the www.comebackalive.com site for travellers (under ‘Dangerous Places’) gives a page to America. The articles are worth reading, even if only for a laugh - like the Nigeria one on scams that even non-covetous Christians fall victim to. The comparison of police corruption and its subtlety in the States with that here is interesting. Ivory Coast does not feature among Pelton’s dangerous places.
To better celebrate St Pat’s Day on Friday, the Irish can be happy. The article: “European cities head quality of life rankings” rejoices in the fact that Dublin is 22nd in the world for “quality of life”.
The Americans are not to be outdone. They proudly point out that Honolulu ranks among the “safest” U.S. cities, and at least manages to tie for 45th place globally. The article: http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2005/Mar/15/ln/ln19p.html
You are in theory safer in San Francisco (and that “in theory” is important) than in New York which comes in at 58th position and Atlanta in 90th place.
That too rare species of antipodeans can rejoice that Sydney comes in at 5th place in the “quality of life” category, for what that is worth. But there are suburbs there where you best walk with a rear-view mirror in your hand and preferably with a friend linked to the Chinese triad and the Vietnamese mafia.
We all know about statistics and lying statistics, things being true and not true at the same time. I am not sure that the sort of facts and figures reported are borne out in real terms so far as we as expatriates are concerned. I say this mindful of the personal safety warnings just below this post.
I quote accounts of this Mercer report: "The safety survey evaluated 215 locations for crime levels and internal stability."
A newspaper article giving a précis of the report says: “The world’s least secure city is Baghdad (Iraq), with a score of 5 due to ongoing civil unrest and threats of attack in the city. Other low-ranking cities include Abidjan in the Ivory Coast, Bangui in Central African Republic, and Port Harcourt and Lagos in Nigeria , which score 24, 26.5, 32.5, and 32.5 respectively. These countries continue to experience political turmoil and low economic growth.”
"The top-ranking cities for personal safety and security are in politically stable countries with good international relations and sustainable economic growth," said the senior researcher at Mercer. "Most of the low-scoring cities are in countries with civil unrest, little law enforcement and high levels of crime."
This seems to be looking partly at economic and political stability together with safety. True, the second factor may raise blood pressure and cause diarrhoea problems, but it is not really a "safety" factor.
They say: “Scores for personal safety and security are based on relationships with other countries, internal stability, and crime, including terrorism. Law enforcement, censorship, and limitations on personal freedom are also taken into account.” Now that is sure spreading the net wide and no wonder African cities do not compare with American for that sort of “safety” – though with those criteria in mind, in the past America would not at all have been a “safe” place, with its relationship to the ex-URSS, Cuba, Colombia, Panama, etc.
But I realize that the figures and this sort of report are among other things useful for diplomats, ADB people and others to get "hardship post" pay.
It perhaps needs to be said that Embassy bulletins and advisories concerning security are in many cases a matter of covering their rear-end. They so often deal with potential threats to expatriates rather than real danger, just as in the States periodic warnings are given of a possible attack against bridges, trains, airports or whatever – for what they are worth. It’s just good politics in case things go wrong. ("We told you so.") When the Indonesian bombings took place, Australian tourists asked, Why weren’t we warned? (But they would probably have gone there on holidays all the same.)
And note that the data of this report was collected between September and November 2004. Now in Abidjan there were special incidents in November which would raise safety concerns. But note: no deaths of expatriats not even serious injuries (except military). The situation was little worse than student riots in Paris or WTO riots elsewhere in the West, and certainly nothing like the slaughter in Russia when trying to liberate a school.
Also, we have had no Twin Towers safety concerns here in Abidjan and Al Qaeda does not raise the same concerns here as Stateside. (Except for journalists with poor geography who confuse Azerbaijan and Abidjan.)
In that regard, today’s news makes gives residents of Ivory Coast grounds to be relieved they are not in the United States “The Department of Homeland Security, trying to focus antiterrorism spending better nationwide, has identified a dozen possible strikes it views as most plausible or devastating, including detonation of a nuclear device in a major city, release of sarin nerve agent in office buildings and a truck bombing of a sports arena.” New York Times, March 16, 2005
I think the Mercer study took into account medical facilities available also. But what expats have access to in Abidjan is as good as some of the best in New York and the world -- except that some people are afraid to be treated by African medical personnel.
As for quality of life, most expats live better in Abidjan (servants, travel, financial security, perks) than they would in the States or elsewhere. Too much of this factor is linked to non-consequential things like the cost of a packet of cornflakes in Abidjan compared with the price in a no-frills supermarket in America or elsewhere.
But the "quality of life" figures in this sort of report look no doubt at the overall poverty level of the population. If you are going to do that, you should rather compare Abidjan with the Bronx than with greater New York.
Even so, real city to city comparisons can be made. For example, compare firearm killings per day in Abidjan (excluding those by the police - but remember an unarmed African in New York like Amadou Diallo could receive 41 police bullets) with those per day in New York or Washington.
Just how many whites are killed by firearms in Abidjan in a year? How many in New York?
How many shootings take place in schools in Abidjan per year? In New York?
Even car-jackings, perhaps 7 per day in Abidjan? How many in New York or Washington? (The size of the city was not relevant to the report as they put Luxemburg at the top.)
In terms of potential danger, how many hand guns and automatic weapons are in people’s hands in Abidjan? And in New York?
How many robberies go "wrong" here? And in New York, with deaths?
Where are the areas in Abidjan where the police dare not go? And in New York?
Where are you afraid to park your car in Abidjan for fear of losing the wheels? And in New York?
Where were you afraid to walk or jog in Abidjan? In the daytime? At night? What about in New York or Washington? (And what about Jo’burg where people are said never to dare walk?)
It seems to be becoming a norm in America for dissatisfied workers or worshippers to walk into a work place or church and kill several people. We see none of that here in Abidjan.
Everything is relative, but to put Abidjan lower than Lagos on a safety chart is over the top. And as for non-mentioned factors such as kidnappings of expat children, there is no comparison between Abidjan and Mexico City. Maybe the report compilers need to do a rethink after watching “Man on Fire”.
It is still worth noting that the www.comebackalive.com site for travellers (under ‘Dangerous Places’) gives a page to America. The articles are worth reading, even if only for a laugh - like the Nigeria one on scams that even non-covetous Christians fall victim to. The comparison of police corruption and its subtlety in the States with that here is interesting. Ivory Coast does not feature among Pelton’s dangerous places.
To better celebrate St Pat’s Day on Friday, the Irish can be happy. The article: “European cities head quality of life rankings” rejoices in the fact that Dublin is 22nd in the world for “quality of life”.
The Americans are not to be outdone. They proudly point out that Honolulu ranks among the “safest” U.S. cities, and at least manages to tie for 45th place globally. The article: http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2005/Mar/15/ln/ln19p.html
You are in theory safer in San Francisco (and that “in theory” is important) than in New York which comes in at 58th position and Atlanta in 90th place.
That too rare species of antipodeans can rejoice that Sydney comes in at 5th place in the “quality of life” category, for what that is worth. But there are suburbs there where you best walk with a rear-view mirror in your hand and preferably with a friend linked to the Chinese triad and the Vietnamese mafia.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Phone Numbers for Police
Remember, if you have a robbery or other incident, it helps enormously if you mention that you will pay "transport". (Same applies to CIE and SODECI utilities.) They are better motivated. :-)
Direction générale (ex-Sûreté /downtown HQ - visas, etc.) : 20.22.08.22
Préfecture de police (Commissariat central) : 20.21.00.22 / 20.32.00.22
Gendarmerie (Helpful sometimes if police are uncooperative) : 20.21.88.83
Police Emergency 20.21.44.88 (They often refer to your local Station/Commissariat)
Commissariats /Local Stations :
Airport : 21.27.70.31
Plateau : 20.21.58.33
Treichville : 21.24.17.48
Adjame : 20.37.44.65
Zone 4 : 21.35.10.27
Port Bouet : 21.27.71.78
Koumassi : 21.36.14.34
200 Logements (Adjamé) : 20.37.15.91
Cocody : 22.44.15.16
Marcory : 21.26.78.58
Attecoube : 20.37.27.41
Williamsville :20. 37.23.28
II Plateaux : 22.41.35.05
Abobo (13e arrondissement) : 24.39.00.90
Abobo (14e art) 24.39.15.54
Abobo (15e art) 24.39.05.00
Yopougon (16e art): 23.45.26.64
Yopougon (19e art): 23.45.63.60
Niangon (Yop) : 23.46.37.28
Riviera : 22.43.18.65
Remember, if you have a robbery or other incident, it helps enormously if you mention that you will pay "transport". (Same applies to CIE and SODECI utilities.) They are better motivated. :-)
Direction générale (ex-Sûreté /downtown HQ - visas, etc.) : 20.22.08.22
Préfecture de police (Commissariat central) : 20.21.00.22 / 20.32.00.22
Gendarmerie (Helpful sometimes if police are uncooperative) : 20.21.88.83
Police Emergency 20.21.44.88 (They often refer to your local Station/Commissariat)
Commissariats /Local Stations :
Airport : 21.27.70.31
Plateau : 20.21.58.33
Treichville : 21.24.17.48
Adjame : 20.37.44.65
Zone 4 : 21.35.10.27
Port Bouet : 21.27.71.78
Koumassi : 21.36.14.34
200 Logements (Adjamé) : 20.37.15.91
Cocody : 22.44.15.16
Marcory : 21.26.78.58
Attecoube : 20.37.27.41
Williamsville :20. 37.23.28
II Plateaux : 22.41.35.05
Abobo (13e arrondissement) : 24.39.00.90
Abobo (14e art) 24.39.15.54
Abobo (15e art) 24.39.05.00
Yopougon (16e art): 23.45.26.64
Yopougon (19e art): 23.45.63.60
Niangon (Yop) : 23.46.37.28
Riviera : 22.43.18.65
Security Preoccupations in Abidjan
The 4000 odd prisoners let out of the Abidjan jail late last year – whether deliberately or accidentally – are adding to the city’s security problems.
With the killing of expatriates by bandits in Abidjan and Grand Bassam it is well for everyone still in Ivory Coast to be aware of the increased dangers and to be extremely cautious. In some cases the bandits are in military camouflage gear which makes things even more difficult.
In view of the security situation, and the volatile political situation, as at this month the latest French official advice is clear: "Il est déconseillé d'effectuer un séjour en Côte d'Ivoire, quel qu'en soit le motif" ("It is not advisable to plan a stay in Ivory Coast for any reason at all").
There are car-jackings every day and even if the level is not that of Joburg, it is a cause for concern as people are shot at the least sign of hesitation or resistance. What you have in your bag or car is not worth your life. Also the car-jackers are more and more daring, in some cases taking the first car stopped at traffic lights during the midday peak hour. Luxury cars are particularly targeted at the moment, BMWs and Mercedes. Nigerian Prosperity Gospel pastors beware! You may have to share your prosperity with others. Four wheel drives are also in vogue.
Standard advice is not to stand outside a home, restaurant or shop talking beside your car but to get in and drive off immediately. Keeping windows closed and doors locked gives at least a false sense of security and avoids sharing a seat with another passenger. Many hold-ups now take place in the early evening, about 8 p.m.
However, on the bridges at night, according to a French consular bulletin, bandits act with impunity just a few cars back from where vehicles are held up by the police roadblocks. Others have been known to attack vehicles moving onto the bridge accessway from Marcory.
Cell phones have been stolen at gun point by well-dressed men in good vehicles. They call their victim across as if they want street or other directions.
Recently a missionary was seriously injured when, becoming aware of the presence of robbers outside, he fled and quickly sought to take refuge in his house. In another incident, a whole family was robbed as a result of someone’s going into the street to see what the commotion was about.
Gone are the days when your house guard could sit in front of your gate and play cards or chat with the guard next door. Any guard should be inside the locked gate and he should let you in quickly when you arrive.
Mobs are also unpredictable in the current political climate. On 20th Feb. three French were detailed for three unpleasant hours by the aggressive residents of a village near Bonoua. More recently an American missionary in a brush with a taxi that did not respect a Stop sign at Riviera II was greeted with a call “Let’s kill the Frenchmen” and was saved by the fact that among the bystanders was one of his church people. The Young Patriots do not check expatriates’ accents.
The 4000 odd prisoners let out of the Abidjan jail late last year – whether deliberately or accidentally – are adding to the city’s security problems.
With the killing of expatriates by bandits in Abidjan and Grand Bassam it is well for everyone still in Ivory Coast to be aware of the increased dangers and to be extremely cautious. In some cases the bandits are in military camouflage gear which makes things even more difficult.
In view of the security situation, and the volatile political situation, as at this month the latest French official advice is clear: "Il est déconseillé d'effectuer un séjour en Côte d'Ivoire, quel qu'en soit le motif" ("It is not advisable to plan a stay in Ivory Coast for any reason at all").
There are car-jackings every day and even if the level is not that of Joburg, it is a cause for concern as people are shot at the least sign of hesitation or resistance. What you have in your bag or car is not worth your life. Also the car-jackers are more and more daring, in some cases taking the first car stopped at traffic lights during the midday peak hour. Luxury cars are particularly targeted at the moment, BMWs and Mercedes. Nigerian Prosperity Gospel pastors beware! You may have to share your prosperity with others. Four wheel drives are also in vogue.
Standard advice is not to stand outside a home, restaurant or shop talking beside your car but to get in and drive off immediately. Keeping windows closed and doors locked gives at least a false sense of security and avoids sharing a seat with another passenger. Many hold-ups now take place in the early evening, about 8 p.m.
However, on the bridges at night, according to a French consular bulletin, bandits act with impunity just a few cars back from where vehicles are held up by the police roadblocks. Others have been known to attack vehicles moving onto the bridge accessway from Marcory.
Cell phones have been stolen at gun point by well-dressed men in good vehicles. They call their victim across as if they want street or other directions.
Recently a missionary was seriously injured when, becoming aware of the presence of robbers outside, he fled and quickly sought to take refuge in his house. In another incident, a whole family was robbed as a result of someone’s going into the street to see what the commotion was about.
Gone are the days when your house guard could sit in front of your gate and play cards or chat with the guard next door. Any guard should be inside the locked gate and he should let you in quickly when you arrive.
Mobs are also unpredictable in the current political climate. On 20th Feb. three French were detailed for three unpleasant hours by the aggressive residents of a village near Bonoua. More recently an American missionary in a brush with a taxi that did not respect a Stop sign at Riviera II was greeted with a call “Let’s kill the Frenchmen” and was saved by the fact that among the bystanders was one of his church people. The Young Patriots do not check expatriates’ accents.
Monday, March 14, 2005
Ivorian Phone Charges Reduced Yet Again
No doubt because of the competition from IP phone businesses, CI-Telcom international rates have dropped yet again. (Compare the Feb 2004 charges mentioned earlier.)
To ring the USA, Canada or France by landline phone now costs 150F per minute.
To CEDEAO countries it now costs 249F per minute.
To cell phones from a landline, it costs 124F – cheaper than cell phone to cell phone in almost all cases!
Local calls are still expensive at 59F per minute and 54F off-peak and at weekends.
Telecel advertises international calls to 200 countries at 353F per minute, and Orange is even cheaper at 300F per minute (by 10 second increments).
All these charges are inclusive of VAT.
No doubt because of the competition from IP phone businesses, CI-Telcom international rates have dropped yet again. (Compare the Feb 2004 charges mentioned earlier.)
To ring the USA, Canada or France by landline phone now costs 150F per minute.
To CEDEAO countries it now costs 249F per minute.
To cell phones from a landline, it costs 124F – cheaper than cell phone to cell phone in almost all cases!
Local calls are still expensive at 59F per minute and 54F off-peak and at weekends.
Telecel advertises international calls to 200 countries at 353F per minute, and Orange is even cheaper at 300F per minute (by 10 second increments).
All these charges are inclusive of VAT.
Sunday, March 13, 2005
Not War, Not Peace – But Going Backwards Fast
President Laurent Gbagbo has spoken of the recent pro-régime militia attack against the ex-rebels at Logoualé in the West as “a rising fever” (“poussée de fièvre”) and he has predicted other incidents like it. The French forces have linked the incident there to Blé Goudé of the Young Patriots. When the peacekeeping “impartial forces” arrested the militiamen, led by a dubious “Pastor” Gammi, Blé Goudé immediately threatened action against the French base in Abidjan as from March 13. As the financed spokesman for the pro-Gbagbo youth movement (one of the “Patriotes alimentaires”, to use Affi's term) he has this weekend now given the French Unicorn peacekeeping force a week to pack their bags to leave Ivory Coast. Or else!
(With plane seats out fully booked and SOS and other international security firms starting evacuations late this last week, companies moving personnel to off-shore rigs, and clear signals being sent by some embassies, the Ivorian Council of Ministers belatedly imposed a further three-month ban on marches and sit-ins and condemned the Logoualé attack. **smile** **sigh**)
However, President Gbagbo may well now be in a buttering up stage, wanting people to believe that spontaneous action against the ex-rebels is being planned and mounted by grassroot movements. But it was a similar threat by the Young Patriots to march to liberate Bouaké that led to the abortive army attacks on the North in November, breaking the cease-fire agreed between the armed forces of both sides.
The political steps intended to lead up to disarmament have not really been taken and almost no goodwill exists on either side. With his litany of broken promises, and the November breach of the cease-fire, the ex-rebels have been given no reason to trust President Gbagbo’s good faith – even if the Union African accepted that a referendum is one way to get article 35 of the Constitution changed (to allow Alassane Ouattara AND Bédié to be candidates). But note, on condition that Gbagbo and his FPI party campaign for a yes vote!
Since the beginning, Gbagbo has depended on the street for his support, and his televised speeches have often been like those of someone speaking to students in a university ampthitheatre rather than a Nation. Even when he was in the opposition, his marches were linked to violence. Now, instead of disbanding them as the UN and the agreements stipulate, the authorities seems set to once again bring the militias to the fore, probably to justify a later Ivorian army intervention in their support.
In that light, one can easily understand why the British and the Belgians (among others) are again telling their nationals to reconsider just why they are in Ivory Coast, and the imminent danger. They are stressing that the French forces may no longer be able to intervene for the safety of expatriates in danger, nor even to secure the airport.
This all comes on top of the political, social and economic malaise. The New Forces are not participating in the Reconciliation Government partly because of security concerns. The opposition G7 are not happy about the way the Marcoussis Agreement laws were diluted when they went through the National Assembly, and they reject the make-up of the Electoral Commission which is supposed to oversee the October Presidential and the other later elections. The authorities and the FPI for their part never accept that it is in any part responsible for the Nation's woes -- even often saying it is the fault of France, the UN or the international community.
So many thousands are now out of work as a result of the destruction, robbery and evacuations in November, with the subsequent closing of businesses and factories. In addition, there are the some 4000 prisoners who got out of or were released from the Abidjan prison about the time of the November events, and this has heightened the level of insecurity almost to Washington or Nairobi levels. (Fortunately the political prisoners are no threat, as it is said they did not manage to escape, only the robbers and other bandits.)
The economy is in a mess, not just because of the money stripped from elsewhere for armaments. The November events have probably set Ivory Coast back a decade or two. The Port is not operating to capacity, firms have closed their factories, exports are down, crops like cotton are being moved out to neighbouring countries, and customs revenue is way down. The DG of Customs literally wept at the Maison de la Presse in February while describing the economic situation of the country. His comment was dramatic: “Each day that passes puts us back several years.”
The bright spots are the arms embargo imposed on the country by the UN Security Council, that the UN is determined to try to prevent another Rwanda, that the Mbeki mediation is still continuing, and that people like President Obasanjo and some European ambassadors are prepared to speak frankly when meeting with President Gbagbo and the leaders of the New Forces.
The consensus Prime Minister, Seydou Diarra, is said to have requested of Mbeki that the elections be supervised by the United Nations. That seems to be the only way to go. But then again, who can be a candidate, and who will be able to vote? (No new identity cards have been issued since 1999, many northerners were not previously able to get their cards, and in addition in theory 18 year olds can now vote. Mrs Gbagbo’s position that only those who were able to vote at the time President Gbagbo was elected should now do so, is not likely to be met with general approval. But how can new electoral lists be drawn up in a divided country?)
Meanwhile life goes on in Abidjan and the rest of the country. The phones and electricity work. Supermarkets are well stocked and checkout queues almost non-existent. Several missionaries are at work in Ferké, Abengourou, Anyama and elsewhere. Expatriates work in Bouaké and other parts of the divided territory. Even the British Ambassador took a look-see in the north. Perhaps he and others feel less threatened there than in Abidjan.
There is no great panic at the moment. But if the French troops pull out of Ivory Coast next month, it is certain that many people will go with them. Already even Ivorians with the means to do so have begun their exodus.
President Laurent Gbagbo has spoken of the recent pro-régime militia attack against the ex-rebels at Logoualé in the West as “a rising fever” (“poussée de fièvre”) and he has predicted other incidents like it. The French forces have linked the incident there to Blé Goudé of the Young Patriots. When the peacekeeping “impartial forces” arrested the militiamen, led by a dubious “Pastor” Gammi, Blé Goudé immediately threatened action against the French base in Abidjan as from March 13. As the financed spokesman for the pro-Gbagbo youth movement (one of the “Patriotes alimentaires”, to use Affi's term) he has this weekend now given the French Unicorn peacekeeping force a week to pack their bags to leave Ivory Coast. Or else!
(With plane seats out fully booked and SOS and other international security firms starting evacuations late this last week, companies moving personnel to off-shore rigs, and clear signals being sent by some embassies, the Ivorian Council of Ministers belatedly imposed a further three-month ban on marches and sit-ins and condemned the Logoualé attack. **smile** **sigh**)
However, President Gbagbo may well now be in a buttering up stage, wanting people to believe that spontaneous action against the ex-rebels is being planned and mounted by grassroot movements. But it was a similar threat by the Young Patriots to march to liberate Bouaké that led to the abortive army attacks on the North in November, breaking the cease-fire agreed between the armed forces of both sides.
The political steps intended to lead up to disarmament have not really been taken and almost no goodwill exists on either side. With his litany of broken promises, and the November breach of the cease-fire, the ex-rebels have been given no reason to trust President Gbagbo’s good faith – even if the Union African accepted that a referendum is one way to get article 35 of the Constitution changed (to allow Alassane Ouattara AND Bédié to be candidates). But note, on condition that Gbagbo and his FPI party campaign for a yes vote!
Since the beginning, Gbagbo has depended on the street for his support, and his televised speeches have often been like those of someone speaking to students in a university ampthitheatre rather than a Nation. Even when he was in the opposition, his marches were linked to violence. Now, instead of disbanding them as the UN and the agreements stipulate, the authorities seems set to once again bring the militias to the fore, probably to justify a later Ivorian army intervention in their support.
In that light, one can easily understand why the British and the Belgians (among others) are again telling their nationals to reconsider just why they are in Ivory Coast, and the imminent danger. They are stressing that the French forces may no longer be able to intervene for the safety of expatriates in danger, nor even to secure the airport.
Young patriots on the move.
Some of "our elements" as the Army Chief of Staff has said.
This all comes on top of the political, social and economic malaise. The New Forces are not participating in the Reconciliation Government partly because of security concerns. The opposition G7 are not happy about the way the Marcoussis Agreement laws were diluted when they went through the National Assembly, and they reject the make-up of the Electoral Commission which is supposed to oversee the October Presidential and the other later elections. The authorities and the FPI for their part never accept that it is in any part responsible for the Nation's woes -- even often saying it is the fault of France, the UN or the international community.
So many thousands are now out of work as a result of the destruction, robbery and evacuations in November, with the subsequent closing of businesses and factories. In addition, there are the some 4000 prisoners who got out of or were released from the Abidjan prison about the time of the November events, and this has heightened the level of insecurity almost to Washington or Nairobi levels. (Fortunately the political prisoners are no threat, as it is said they did not manage to escape, only the robbers and other bandits.)
The economy is in a mess, not just because of the money stripped from elsewhere for armaments. The November events have probably set Ivory Coast back a decade or two. The Port is not operating to capacity, firms have closed their factories, exports are down, crops like cotton are being moved out to neighbouring countries, and customs revenue is way down. The DG of Customs literally wept at the Maison de la Presse in February while describing the economic situation of the country. His comment was dramatic: “Each day that passes puts us back several years.”
The bright spots are the arms embargo imposed on the country by the UN Security Council, that the UN is determined to try to prevent another Rwanda, that the Mbeki mediation is still continuing, and that people like President Obasanjo and some European ambassadors are prepared to speak frankly when meeting with President Gbagbo and the leaders of the New Forces.
The consensus Prime Minister, Seydou Diarra, is said to have requested of Mbeki that the elections be supervised by the United Nations. That seems to be the only way to go. But then again, who can be a candidate, and who will be able to vote? (No new identity cards have been issued since 1999, many northerners were not previously able to get their cards, and in addition in theory 18 year olds can now vote. Mrs Gbagbo’s position that only those who were able to vote at the time President Gbagbo was elected should now do so, is not likely to be met with general approval. But how can new electoral lists be drawn up in a divided country?)
Meanwhile life goes on in Abidjan and the rest of the country. The phones and electricity work. Supermarkets are well stocked and checkout queues almost non-existent. Several missionaries are at work in Ferké, Abengourou, Anyama and elsewhere. Expatriates work in Bouaké and other parts of the divided territory. Even the British Ambassador took a look-see in the north. Perhaps he and others feel less threatened there than in Abidjan.
There is no great panic at the moment. But if the French troops pull out of Ivory Coast next month, it is certain that many people will go with them. Already even Ivorians with the means to do so have begun their exodus.
The country is as divided as ever, the north being in the hands of the New Forces
(ex-rebels) participating in theory in the Reconciliation Government.
The blue zone is the Confidence (buffer) Zone
manned by the French and UNOCI forces.
(Map: www.UN.org)
(ex-rebels) participating in theory in the Reconciliation Government.
The blue zone is the Confidence (buffer) Zone
manned by the French and UNOCI forces.
(Map: www.UN.org)
Saturday, March 12, 2005
It is these militias supported financially by the Presidence
and others related to the FPI that are one of the biggest threats
in terms of security and also peace in the country,
as recent events in Logoualé in the West have shown.
In fact, the different embassy advisories two years ago
telling people to leave the country, were in large part motivated
by concerns about these groups and the unpredictable Young Patriots --
and the danger that the exasperated young RDR supports (often victims
of death squads) may come out in the streets against them.
There is good reason to believe that some groups are out of control
whereas others dance to the tune of the régime -- and are always
used by the Authorities to give the impression of "popular" street support.
and others related to the FPI that are one of the biggest threats
in terms of security and also peace in the country,
as recent events in Logoualé in the West have shown.
In fact, the different embassy advisories two years ago
telling people to leave the country, were in large part motivated
by concerns about these groups and the unpredictable Young Patriots --
and the danger that the exasperated young RDR supports (often victims
of death squads) may come out in the streets against them.
There is good reason to believe that some groups are out of control
whereas others dance to the tune of the régime -- and are always
used by the Authorities to give the impression of "popular" street support.
The regime and the ruling party has been exploiting various youth militias
denounced by the United Nations, like the GPP in Abidjan
that has battled the police and attacked merchants and transporters.
The regime says they are unarmed. Yes, your eyes must deceive you.
denounced by the United Nations, like the GPP in Abidjan
that has battled the police and attacked merchants and transporters.
The regime says they are unarmed. Yes, your eyes must deceive you.




